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Statistical Relationship Between Wastewater Data and Case Notifications for COVID-19 Surveillance in the United States From 2020 to 2023: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

Statistical Relationship Between Wastewater Data and Case Notifications for COVID-19 Surveillance in the United States From 2020 to 2023: Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

Namely, we modelled the weekly COVID-19 case reports for each county using a negative binomial likelihood, allowing for over-dispersion in these data: In Equation 1, Yit represents reported COVID-19 cases for county i and week t. We used an alternative parameterization of the negative binomial in which μit parameterizes the mean of the likelihood and φ parameterizes the extra-Poisson variation.

Masahiko Haraguchi, Fayette Klaassen, Ted Cohen, Joshua A Salomon, Nicolas A Menzies

JMIR Public Health Surveill 2025;11:e68213